TL;DR: Italy, and Milano, seems to showcase that a global declining population doesn’t help allevaite “dichtestress” in the economic centers. So the initiative text in the “red booklet” of the voting material starts with this sentence (page 16 german version): Wir alle sehen und spüren die Folgen der massiven Zuwanderung: Wohnungsnot, die Mieten werden immer teurer. Die Zubetonierung der Landschaft. Stau und überfüllte Züge. Is clear to me that in doing so, the SVP is implying that their initative will solve these problems. Now, I don’t thing we have enough proof around us that a population cap or a sinking population will actually help solve those challenges. Why do I think so? First, let my share that I think these challenges are mostly felt in the cities, Zurich area, Bern, Lausanne, Geneva. Main road axes (A2). Etc In these regions they are caused by a growing urban population. No questions about it. In some areas you feel the infrastracture at the limits (eg regioanl trains from France / Italy to Geneva/Lugano) but the cause there is clearly border commuters, not resident population. Anyway, the more I research this topic, the more I think that a population cap will NOT reduce population in those big urban area. It may even have a counterintuitive effect and increase the migration towards those urban poles. We have an example near us: Italy. Italy lost 1.1 million people (2%) in 9 years from 2014 to 2023 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population?tab=table&time=2014..latest&country=~ITA&tableSearch=italy So we now think this for sure has solved all real estate problems, prices and congestion in Milano, the “Zurich” of Italy, correct? Well not really: the emptying of the countryside, the abandoning of entire villages (everybody knows of the “1chf” homes you can buy in the south) reduced even further the opportuntiy and the economics of living in the countryside. Internal migration towards the economic center increased. Milano & suburbs population went from 5.27 million in 2015 to 6.1 million in 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milan Real estate prices, inflation adjusted, went up 15-20% in Milano, 40% in absolute terms, from 2013: https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/case-milano-2013-prezzi-sono-cresciuti-40-cento-AFEMtKtD Now, in other italian cities, the trend is more stable: slightly declining population, stagnant real-estate prices. But that situation is not strictly speaking better: unenmployment is higher, your real estate purchase is losing money over time, limited perspectives. So a population cap/declining population may help accelerating the emptying of the countryside. Without new people, the regions away from economical center will slowly degrade economically, futher pushing people to immigrate internally to Zurich/Bern/Lausanne. The pressure there will remain very high. The risk is there that this simplistic solution is not a balanced approach that would equally benefit all of Switzerland, and I don’t think that it will particularly help solving Zurich congestion/Wohnungsnot problems. I personally think Zurich will be our “Milano” and still pull people in, creating further infrastructure problems. With the difference that companies located outside away and in the countryside will struggle with hiring and will move more and more towards the economic center, like is happening to Italy. Do I have proposals? We should probably look at a various angles:
- enforce the current mietrecht
- balance out the economic attractivity using corporate taxes; slight more taxes may mean less request for EU workers. just use fraciton of percentage to fine tune so that our population stabilize instead of growing
- increase child care, try to have as many parents out there working at reduced percentage. Make 60-80% more common for both genders. This could help with nurses/healtchare shortage.
- eliminate/alleviate the “old age” penalty regarding BVG contributions
- provide some form of incentive for older people renting in large apartment to move out to smaller apartment without losing money…they are still paying rent of 30 years ago and their rent will actually increase if moving to smaller apartment…ridicoulous. submitted by /u/swissgrog
Originally posted by u/swissgrog on r/Switzerland