Marc Andreesen stated publicly the main reason for supporting Trump was the Biden administration’s plans to lock down the AI market to a few big players. Looking at how the big players (Musk, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Oracle) are buying up all chips for years to come - and this irrespective the mounting operative losses - I am wondering if the plan is still going. Reason is that if they are able to keep up their buying frenzy and >90% of all advanced GPUs go to those few companies, they will end up as the only ones able to provide large scale computation power. No big tech company with intense computation needs will be able to run its own local model with exclusive training data. They all will soon have the choice to either fall back from the cutting edge, or buy computation power and with that open their vaults with exclusive training data. This development (either by design, or just market force) could only be stopped by the AI bubble bursting. But will this happen? Lot’s of analysts say yes, it must happen giving the unrealistic business models. But then again, SpaceX is about to enter the stock market, which will flush virtually endless amounts of cash into Elon Musk’s pockets. He will certainly up the computation game, tightening the market for chips even more. Beyond that, there are major interest holders in the US who have an interest in this oligopoly. For one the political “left” as mentioned above, but also US imperialists who want to keep China at bay to keep up the US hegemonial position in the world. Lastly, there’s major investors like Blackrock who like the oligopoly, because it guarantees stable dividends, once profitability is reached. The longer the current bottleneck is kept up - especially chips, but also energy - the more likely it becomes that tech companies who are not in the AI race will cave and become customer of one of the oligopolists. Given the tight race at the cutting edge of various tech fields, they won’t be able to afford anything else. Bottom line: I have serious doubts the AI bubble will burst. If anything, they will rather burst everything else before that happens. There’s just too much to win/lose should the AI bet not work out. In 5 years from now, the gap in computation power will be big enough for the AI companies to finally start being profitable and nothing will be able to break that oligopoly again. submitted by /u/Extrogrl
Originally posted by u/Extrogrl on r/ArtificialInteligence