Mortimer vs Duradel for the Imbued Heart: a spreadsheet model still favours targeted Duradel skipping TL;DR as very long post with all background / rationale. I built a spreadsheet model comparing the proposed Wyrmscraig Slayer Master, Mortimer, with Duradel for one objective only: minimising expected time to an Imbued heart . Under the updated assumptions, the fastest strategy is still: Use Duradel, complete only Smoke devil and Araxyte tasks, and Turael-skip everything else. The model estimates 87.8 hours per expected heart with the 99 Slayer. The same strategy is 91.1 hours without the slayer cape perk The blanket Mortimer +10% scenario is deliberately optimistic. It assumes every selected Mortimer task receives a 10% increase in imbued heart chance either by increasing kills / task, or superior spawn rate (or heart chance from superior). The actual proposal does not say this will happen. With optional assignments disabled and Mortimer’s two blocks used, the model still has 22 active tasks . Every specific task is therefore only 1/22, or 4.55%, per individual roll . With two choices: 17.4% chance the offer contains an S-tier task 29.8% chance the best option is A tier 52.9% chance both options are B/C/D tier That pool dilution is the main reason Mortimer loses to targeted Duradel skipping as only 2/22 tasks are “S” tier, or 9%. Suggested improvement More blocks on Mortimer Lower points to cancel a bad Mortimer task from 100 proposed Alternatively, every x tasks completed lets you chose specific task as initially proposed, being a different reward for x tasks completed rather than slayer points as the reward. What Jagex is proposing The original Mortimer design would have allowed players to directly choose a Slayer task in exchange for a large number of points. Jagex changed this because it was considered difficult to balance, risked undermining Slayer’s RNG-based identity, and could have made Turael boosting even more important. The revised design goals are: Better support for targeting specific creatures or boss grinds Less reliance on Turael skipping More meaningful decisions within Slayer An alternative to existing Slayer Masters rather than a direct replacement Mortimer offers two tasks and eventually unlocks a third choice. He has his own progression system built around task modifiers rather than normal Slayer-point income. Proposed modifier system At least one task in each offer will have a modifier. Each additional offered task has a 10% chance to receive one as well. The proposed modifier categories are: Slayer points on completion Modified task quantity Increased clue-scroll rates Increased Slayer XP Increased Superior spawn rate The exact values are still pending balancing. The progression shown in the proposal is: This means the Superior modifier is not even unlocked until 75 Mortimer tasks, and the third choice does not arrive until 100 tasks. The proposal also deliberately includes lower-level creatures. Mortimer has only two block slots , costing 120 Slayer points each , because Jagex wants to preserve variety in the system. Task storage will work and preserve the chosen task and its modifier. The Slayer cape perk will also work, giving a 10% chance to receive the same task again with the same length and modifiers. Official proposal: https://secure.runescape.com/m=news/wyrmscraig---activities--lock-in-poll?oldschool=1 What the spreadsheet compares I modelled three main strategies. Mortimer Every assignment is completed because skipping costs 100 points. Turael cannot reset a Mortimer assignment. The best task is selected from either two or three offers. Optional task unlocks are disabled where possible (no gryphons, vampires, aquanites, warped creatures). The two block slots are used on the two lowest-priority active tasks. Only Smoke devils and Araxytes use a Bracelet of slaughter. Every other task uses an Expeditious bracelet. Only Araxytes are extended. The Slayer cape repeat is accepted only after Smoke devil or Araxyte tasks. A/B/C/D Tier tasks won’t use slayer cape perk. Duradel: broad S/A strategy Complete every S- or A-tier assignment. Turael-skip every B/C/D or non-heart assignment. Use six blocks on the highest-weight unwanted tasks (i.e. metal dragons, black dragons). Only Smoke devils and Araxytes use Slaughter bracelets. Other accepted tasks use Expeditious bracelets. Only Araxytes are extended. Slayer cape repeats are accepted only for Smoke devils and Araxytes. Duradel: Smoke devils and Araxytes only Complete only Smoke devil and Araxyte tasks. Turael-skip everything else. Six blocks automatically target the highest-weight unwanted tasks. Use Slaughter bracelets Extend Araxytes only. Accept the Slayer cape repeat on either accepted task. The default target-only block list is: Metal dragons Abyssal demons Dark beasts Hellhounds Black dragons Cave kraken Abby demons are sometimes included by some Heart hunters with the anchoring scroll and venator bow as an alternative. Turning Abby Demons on means less time Turael skipping, but slower heart grind Core assumptions Superior spawn rate The base Superior chance is: 1/150 ordinary monsters killed This assumes Elite Combat Achievements. Expected hearts from a task are calculated as: Expected monsters killed / 150 / the Superior’s heart denominator The optional Mortimer modifier multiplies this result by 1.10. Bracelets A Bracelet of slaughter has a 25% chance to prevent a kill from reducing the task count. Its expected task-length multiplier is: 4/3, or 1.3333x An Expeditious bracelet has a 25% chance to make a kill count twice. Its expected task-length multiplier is: 0.8x Smoke devils: Slaughter Araxytes: Slaughter Every other task: Expeditious This lengthens the two best heart tasks and shortens time spent on every weaker Mortimer assignment. Extensions Only Araxytes are extended. Unlimited points are assumed for permanent unlocks and extensions, but not for repeatedly skipping Mortimer tasks . Mortimer task quantities Where Duradel already assigns the creature, Mortimer uses the midpoint of Duradel’s assignment range. Where Duradel does not assign the creature, I assume an average assignment of 150 monsters . These quantities are not yet confirmed by Jagex. Turael speed The default assumption is: 10 Turael tasks every 20 minutes That equals two minutes per rejected Duradel roll. Assumes using task storage so hunting 2x tasks and using NPC contact and an efficient Turael block list / teleport system. The model values Turael skipping only as time. It does not assign a cost to broken streaks, lost Duradel points, or annoyance. I haven’t modelled the rare chance of a heart from a Turael task given only assigns up to 30, and heart chance from those monsters are already very low. This, if anything, improves the Duradel option more as a minute chance of heart from a superior crawling hand etc. Slayer cape The player is assumed to have 99 Slayer. The 10% repeat is accepted only for: Smoke devils Araxytes For Mortimer, this slightly increases the long-run share of completed S-tier tasks. For Duradel target-only, it avoids a complete Duradel/Turael reroll cycle 10% of the time. This changes the Duradel target-only estimate from 91.1 hours without the cape to 87.8 hours with the cape . Kills per hour These estimates include the intended efficient method, such as barraging, cannoning, Venator bow, or high-DPS single-target combat. Assumes player has infinite runes/cannonballs and is using max efficiency gear (i.e. barraging in anc, not bursting in monk robes). Also assumed efficient travelling around game (i.e. has Morytania gloves 4, slayer rings / tele tabs / quest cape etc.) The Mortimer modifier assumption is extremely generous I’ve also assumed that the default modifier will be a 10% increase in heart rate either by increasing kill quantity, or superior spawn chance. This is not an estimate of the real modifier system. The actual proposal says: At least one offered task receives a modifier. Each other offered task has only a 10% chance to receive one. The modifier category is random. Increased Superior rate is one of five example categories. The Superior modifier is not unlocked until 75 completed tasks. The actual increase is still shown as X%. The task with the Superior modifier might not be the task you would otherwise choose. The spreadsheet therefore treats +10% as an optimistic sensitivity test: what happens if every selected Mortimer task permanently has 10% more Superiors. Expect actuals to be worse, especially if this is only unlocked after 75 Mortimer tasks. The real average benefit is very likely to be much smaller. The slayer cape behaviour could make a rare good modifier more valuable because the repeated task keeps the same modifier but wasn’t modelled (i.e. if you get 250 Araxytes with 10% superior spawn chance, and the cape procs giving another similar task). Mortimer heart-task tier list This tier list is specifically for Imbued heart efficiency . It is not a general Slayer XP, profit, AFK, or enjoyment ranking. It considers: Ordinary monster kills per hour Imbued heart rate from the Superior Time required to kill the Superior Travel and setup Mandatory equipment or weapon restrictions Task mechanics and attention General community opinion Within each tier, assignments are ordered from highest to lowest preference. Condensed list: S: Smoke devils, Araxytes A: Abyssal demons, Custodian stalkers, Nechryaels, Dust devils B: Hydras, Dark beasts, Gargoyles, Aquanites, Cave horrors, Jellies, Bloodvelds, Vampyres C: Aberrant spectres, Wyrms, Drakes, Gryphons, Kurasks, Basilisks, Turoths D: Infernal mages, Crawling hands, Warped creatures, Pyrefiends, Banshees, Rock slugs, Cockatrices, Cave crawlers Mortimer’s pool problem The proposed list contains 29 assignments in this model. I disable five optional assignments: Aquanites Gryphons Basilisks Vampyres Warped creatures That leaves 24. I then block: Cockatrices Cave crawlers That leaves 22 active assignments . With equal weighting, a specific task has: 1/22 = 4.55% chance per individual roll For one specific task, such as Smoke devils: The aggregate Tier S or A chance is higher because there are six S/A tasks, but each individual desirable task remains rare. Best option in the offer These rows are mutually exclusive: S means at least one S appears. A means no S appears, but at least one A appears. B/C/D means no S or A appears. The 99 Slayer cape slightly increases the long-run share of completed S tasks: Two choices: 17.4% S offers becomes about 18.9% of completed tasks Three choices: 24.9% S offers becomes about 26.9% of completed tasks That helps, but it does not solve the pool dilution. Main results Relative to the target-only Duradel strategy: Mortimer with two choices and no modifier is about 43.6% slower . Mortimer with three choices and no modifier is about 17.0% slower . Even the optimistic three-choice +10% scenario is about 6.4% slower . Broad Duradel S/A is about 6.6% slower . Why the selective Duradel strategy wins The target-only Duradel strategy accepts only 11.0% of eligible rolls. Without the Slayer cape, the expected reroll overhead is roughly 16.1 minutes per accepted task. With the cape repeat accepted on both S tasks, it falls to about 14.5 minutes. The average accepted task takes 28.6 minutes, making the total cycle approximately: 28.6 minutes of Slayer + 14.5 minutes of rerolling = 43.1 minutes The important point is that nearly every minute of actual Slayer combat is spent on the two strongest heart tasks. Mortimer avoids Turael overhead, but over half of two-choice offers contain no S or A task. An Expeditious bracelet shortens those bad assignments, but they still consume time and generate fewer heart rolls than simply rerolling Duradel. A two-minute Turael task is often cheaper than committing to a mediocre 15-30 minute Mortimer assignment. What happens if Mortimer has six blocks? As a sensitivity test, I gave Mortimer six blocks and removed the six lowest-ranked active tasks: Cave crawlers Cockatrices Rock slugs Banshees Pyrefiends Crawling hands This reduces the active pool from 22 to 18. Offer quality with six blocks Expected hours per heart with six blocks For comparison, Duradel target-only is 87.8 hours with the cape. This is the strongest argument for more Mortimer blocks: Six blocks plus three choices brings realistic no-modifier Mortimer to about 92 hours , only around 4.7% slower than Duradel target-only. Six blocks plus the deliberately optimistic blanket modifier beats Duradel, but that modifier assumption is not realistic. Six blocks plus only two choices is still significantly slower at about 112 hours. The third-choice unlock is therefore at least as important as the block count. Recommendation Fastest possible heart grind Use Duradel and: Complete Smoke devil tasks. Complete Araxyte tasks. Turael-skip everything else. Block the highest-weight unwanted tasks. Extend Araxytes. Use Slaughter bracelets Accept the Slayer cape perk for both Smoke devil / Araxytes Maintain roughly 10 Turael tasks per 20 minutes (somewhat aggressive but do-able) Expected result: 87.8 hours per expected Imbued heart Without the Slayer cape repeat, the result is approximately 91.1 hours . Best lower-effort option Mortimer will probably be more enjoyable for players who dislike Turael skipping. At three choices and without assuming a blanket Superior modifier, the model gives approximately: 102.7 hours per expected heart That is slower than targeted Duradel, but it removes constant Turael trips and gives more varied Slayer gameplay. Recommended Mortimer design change My preferred change would be: Allow Mortimer to use six block slots Other reasonable options would be: Three choices from the beginning Higher weights for higher-level Superior creatures A periodic free rejection of the entire offer A cheaper cancellation cost (120 points is mental) With the current two blocks, the system has too many low-value Superior tasks for a targeted heart grind. A specific task remains only 4.55% per roll, and a two-choice offer is B/C/D-only 52.9% of the time. Six blocks would materially improve the system while still leaving Duradel competitive. Under realistic no-modifier assumptions, six-block/three-choice Mortimer remains slightly slower than highly efficient Duradel skipping. That seems much closer to Jagex’s stated goal of providing a genuine alternative without directly replacing existing Slayer Masters. Limitations / assumptions to take into account once more information is released Mortimer’s final task weights may not be equal (though latest post states it will be) Mortimer’s final assignment quantities may differ from Duradel. Could also only have up to 30/50 for lower monsters similar to Turael. Modifier values and probabilities are not final. The blanket +10% modifier assumption is intentionally unrealistic. Kills per hour depend heavily on gear, location, and player execution. Travel is mostly embedded in kills-per-hour estimates. Superior kill time is not always separated from ordinary kill time. I generally empty my cannon when I get a superior araxyte and blowpipe it, so means less K/PH. I would use shadow on superior Smoke Devil etc. Turael speed is assumed to be 10 tasks per 20 minutes. This is do-able and assumes an average of 15 monsters + expeditious bracelets proc’ing. Also assumes using blowpipe etc. Optional Mortimer task unlocks are assumed to be disabled. Vampyres could be turned on given blood shards hunting are now quite good The tier list is partly subjective. For example I ranked Hydras as B tier because they’re a pain to kill, but jellies / bloodvelds are fine to kill as can use venator bow / cannon, but low heart chance etc. submitted by /u/Shane4894
Originally posted by u/Shane4894 on r/2007scape