After running a 50,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation under Mortimer’s rules (2 choices for tasks 1-100, 3 choices for tasks 101+, prioritizing good heart tasks, and breaking tasks with highest base heart chance): Expected Tasks Required For Imbued Heart: ~231.83 First 100 Tasks: The first 100 tasks represent Mortimer’s ramp up period. You do not start at peak efficiency. 2 choices only Locked modifiers (no Superior Drop Rate Modifier until 75 tasks completed) Higher rate of bad task deadlocks (ex. choice between: Rockslugs and Cave Crawlers) Skipping costs 100 slayer points, and no Turael skipping; you are stuck with a long task if your choice was between two long tasks Meta would be to take short, bad tasks (ex. 50 Crawling Hands) to burn through the counter as fast as possible Other notes: Unless you sit on a massive bank of thousands of Slayer points, you will be forced to complete low-tier/mid-tier filler tasks (Crawling Hands, Infernal Mages, Turoth, Wyrms, etc.) when those are the only choices available in your pool (you can only remove 2 via block list). Every time you spend 25-30 minutes on a filler task, the time-to-heart rate drops. Because modifiers are assigned randomly per task, you can and will run into situations where a great monster has rolled a completely useless (to people chasing heart, which is what this slayer master is positioned as something to aid in) modifier. Example: 1. Hydra - +150% clue rate, 2. Jellies - 100% Unique% Modifier, 3. Rockslugs - 5 Slayer Points Putting the dataset below for anyone who also wants to run possible simulations: Simulation Notes: Modifier State Handling: Modifiers are mutually exclusive (P_mod = 0.20 across Quantity, Superior Unique, Points, XP, Clues). Selection Hierarchy: Players choose the offered task with the highest Tier priority (Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3). Ties within a tier are broken by selecting the monster with the highest Weighted Heart Yield / Task. Choice Progression: Task offers are restricted to 2 choices for tasks 1–100, expanding to 3 choices for tasks 101+. The Simulation Results: Note: Crawling Hands and Cave Crawlers were only removed because they were the worst for heart rate, and represent 20 points of weight; anything else that would remove 20 points of weighting from the possible creatures list would also suffice (and probably more ideal, since both Crawling hands and Cave crawlers are relatively fast to kill) to bring up the rate of good tasks. TL;DR: Expectations for Imbued Heart w/ 2 blocks of 10 weight each: Mean Tasks Required: 231.83 Median Tasks Required: 232 Time Required @ 20min/task: ~77 hrs Time Required @ 25min/task: ~96.6 hrs Time Required @ 30min/task: ~115.9 hrs Expectations for Imbued Heart (Unblocked Base) Mean Tasks Required: 242.60 Median Tasks Required: 242 Time Required @ 20min/task: ~80.9 hrs Time Required @ 25min/task: ~101.1 hrs Time Required @ 30min/task: ~121.3 hrs submitted by /u/tiderz
Originally posted by u/tiderz on r/2007scape
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