It is becoming somewhat difficult to get accurate answers on such an important topic because some people ignore progress while others hype everything out of proportion. If you think AI is just a stochastic parrot, or if you need AGI to fix your life, if you want to talk down to people about AI succeeding or failing, if you don’t know about recent AI developments in detail and just watched somebody’s youtube video on the subject, please stay out of this. In light of OpenAI’s recent Astra model, I’m wondering what a realistic timeline for strong AGI* is *(systems that could theoretically do the hardest intellectual jobs - act as a top CEO or military commander, invent new scientific concepts not just solve notable problems). Keep in mind that companies heavily use their own tech to help build the next model so progress may not necessarily be linear. The new model Astra has made progress on 10 problems - not just mathematics problems but quantum computing and cryptography. It solved some and advanced others (the headlines saying it solved 10 problems are slightly incorrect). This model was apparently tested on other major problems (although not for long periods of time) including millennium prize problems without success, supposedly Claude’s model Fable was able to produce 5 of the results. This model may be the internal model that made progress on the planar unit distance problem back in May (it’s work was apparently improved upon by mathematicians) - so openAI has had it for a few months now. AI progress seems to be strongest in mathematics and coding/software engineering - these are areas that will most assist in recursive self improvement, but also areas where it’s easy to train AIs so results will come much faster here. I’d like an honest expectation for when I should expect top jobs to vanish. Months? Years? It’s so hard to know. Plenty of estimates were made this year but new models can be quite surprising so it’s impossible to know if those results still hold because the next AI advances can be so surprising. submitted by /u/cuttheblue
Originally posted by u/cuttheblue on r/ArtificialInteligence