I’m trying to explain in a simple way: Imagine the real-world tech tree. It’s an infinitely complex graph with innovations as nodes and “problem difficulty” as edges. There’s infinitely different paths you can take and one innovation has many input edges with (maybe) many different difficulties. Example: (CHARCOAL) - 80 -> (GUNPOWDER) - 50 -> (RIFLE) Here, innovating gunpowder is hard but going from gunpowder to rifle is easier. Still, rifle is gated behind gunpowder (irl tech tree is infinitely more compex with many more alternative paths). Let’s say humanity has the following problem solving skills: 130. This intelligence skill level changes over time: new innovations, envitonmental factors and evolution improve or decrease it. So humanity is able to solve lvl 130 edges now. And in a year maybe 135. In a more sophisticated model this would also have a time factor in it (like: can solve lvl 130 in 1 month, 140 in 1 year but never 150). Due to ai help, we can now solve lvl 150 edges. Autonomous ai agents are at lvl 100 now. This level increases pretty quickly. Once ai is at or very close to lvl 150, we have agi. Autonomous ai agents will outperform humans and do the innovating then. The singularity starts: Ai agents solve innovations that improve ai skill level. That’s their main goal. Let’s say it goes like this: AI Level: 150 -> 151 -> 155 -> 170 -> 180 -> 200 But what if the next main innovation, maybe a new architecture, a new type of hardware, material or insight, takes a level 300 intelligence and nothing else can get ai above ~ 250? This is where the singularity would stop. There IS something out there that would make ai even better, but it’s so hard to innovate, it won’t happen. It all comes down to what the real world tech tree looks like, but only god could look at it. submitted by /u/Full_Decision_777
Originally posted by u/Full_Decision_777 on r/ArtificialInteligence
You must log in or # to comment.