The last few weeks have been hectic. Hugging Face, multiple hackings, Open AI and Anthropic researchers quitting and doom posting, Dario, Sam and Elon all asking for a slow down, Bernie introducing a pause AI bill, Jason and Donnie want to accelerate as much as possible, etc. So, every man and his dog have been out there in podcastland sharing their opinions. Ed Zitron, Nick Bostrom, Roman Yampolskiy and a dozen more are out in fury. I’ve been following this closely, and … its just blatantly obvious that noone has a real clue of what will happen. Everyone’s just guessing and I think everyone’s guess is just as good and anyone else’s. Have a look at the list of topics where there’s absolutely no concensus whatsoever: PDoom : Ranges from <1% to 99%. So we are most likely going to make or most likely NOT going to make it. AI Apocalipse : For the 99%ers, I havent heard a coherent argument about how AI will destroy humanity. All I hear is “you cant control a higher / super intelligence”, which might be true but there is a massive gap, and unknown chain of events, between resolving a math problem and destroying humanity. After AGI / ASI : Well, we’re going to have a fast take off and we’ll in full FALSGC in late 2026. No!, is going to be a slow take off, it will take decades. NO! it will be medium take off and we’ll have UBI in the meantime. NO! We’ll have Universal HIGH Income and everyone will be a millionaire! NO! There’s no income required, everything will change and money will be meaningless. NO!! Tokens will be currency! We’ll have Universal Token Income! job losses . Well AI is going to take your job. And yours too. And yours too. Maybe not now but it will get better over time and intelligence will be a commodity and well why would any companies keep humans around, they just drag everything down. NO! AI will augment humans and there will be new jobs created that we cant even imagine now, like we couldnt imagine a programmer or a youtuber back in the industrial revolution! Self-awareness : Yes, LLMs are conscious, they should be given rights and we have a moral obligation to protect them…and make them happy. NO! LLMs are stochastic parrots, no smarter than my vaccum cleaner, just looks smart. Math problem : We’re in AGI Now!! we just solved a very very complex math problem!. NO! , it was already mostly in the training data! they brute forced their way in! Seriously, feels like we’re throwing darts at a board. I’m not asking for 100% concensus, but at the very least some minimum overlap of opinions across these topics? This alone tells me that this a “black box” technology, and that we’re in no position to continue at the current pace. submitted by /u/LiveComfortable3228
Originally posted by u/LiveComfortable3228 on r/ArtificialInteligence