Hey everyone. We talk a lot here about timelines, scaling laws, and the incredible capabilities of upcoming models. But I want to zoom in on the macroeconomic architecture of the transition period we are entering right now. Recently, top AI labs have started aggressively hiring top economists (like OpenAI bringing in Ronnie Chatterji). They clearly realize that AGI isn’t just a software upgrade; it fundamentally breaks the traditional macroeconomic models we’ve used for centuries. A recent thought experiment by Citrini Research highlighted a fascinating structural challenge: Modern capitalism relies on human intelligence being a scarce resource. The economic loop is simple: humans provide cognitive labor -> earn wages -> consume products -> generate corporate profit. As we approach AGI and the marginal cost of cognitive labor drops to near zero, that loop breaks. We get massive, incredible output (AI doing the heavy lifting), but the traditional mechanism for distributing purchasing power (wages) evaporates. This isn’t a doomer post—I view this as the necessary growing pains toward an economy of abundance. But I am genuinely curious how you all model the mechanics of this transition over the next 10-20 years:
- The Compute/Energy Standard vs. Fiat Money If traditional GDP and labor metrics detach from reality, does fiat currency lose its anchor? Do we see a transition to a macroeconomic system backed by Energy and Compute? Instead of traditional UBI, do citizens receive a “Universal Basic Compute” (UBC) allowance to direct personal AI agents to generate their necessities?
- Managing the “Good” Deflationary Spiral Technological deflation is normally terrifying for central banks because it leads to depressions. But AI-driven deflation is essentially the path to post-scarcity (goods and services becoming radically cheap). How do modern central banks, whose only real tools are interest rates, handle a massive, structural deflationary spiral that is actually beneficial to human living standards?
- The Shift in Human “Value” If analytical intelligence is no longer scarce, what becomes the new scarce asset in the economy? Does human value pivot entirely to authentic data generation, alignment feedback, and pure human-to-human interaction (the experience economy)? I’d love to hear your economic models, theories, or favorite papers on this. How do we practically bridge the gap between today’s wage-based economy and tomorrow’s post-scarcity world? submitted by /u/SignificanceTime6941
Originally posted by u/SignificanceTime6941 on r/ArtificialInteligence